Here is my
list of the top 5 wrong predictions based from the slides presented in
class. My train of thought in analyzing
these quotes is to not only evaluate their content based on their appropriate
time period, but also on those that gave each individual quote.
1. "This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
– Western Union internal memo, 1876
·
First off, saying that the phone has no value to
Western Union is just completely false.
It’s hard to imagine a context where the ability to communicate over
long distance at a second’s delay would be of no value.
·
Also in looking at this quote, I am curious as
to what shortcomings he is referring to here.
The only thing that I can think of is that of building the
infrastructure associated with a telephone.
However, if the railroads could have been built that surely telephone
wires could be as well.
·
Bringing this quote into a present sense,
Western Union would be completely wrong in the context of mobile phones as
well. While that landline phone may be
obsolete in many households, nearly every American over the age of twelve knows
how to operate a mobile phone. All in
all, I don’t think that this prediction could have ever been a popular thought
2. "Reagan doesn't have that
presidential look." – United Artists executive after rejecting Reagan as
lead in the 1964 film The Best Man
·
Looking at the picture posted on the lecture
slide, I don’t think that there was ever a more prominent presidential figure
than Ronald Reagan. With his couth, dark
hair, perfect white smile, and the fact that he was a Hollywood actor just
screams the face of America – which in fact what a president represents
·
Another issue I have with this statement is that
topic of a ‘presidential look’ in general.
A presidential look, in my opinion, is something that can only be
witnessed after a person takes office.
When a random person addresses the nation, he could take on any number
of impressions. However, when you say
that a man such as Reagan takes the mic as president, he is sure to command the
respect that an American president deserves
3. "I think there is a world market for maybe
five computers." – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
·
Looking at this sentiment in a current setting,
this quote could not be any more far from the truth. Walking around my house, I have witnessed
over 15 computers in the hands of my housemates. To say that 5 for a world market would be
sufficient is absurd. There are few
things in general that would only have a world demand of 5 and I am having
difficulty coming up with an example anyway.
·
Also, Watson was the Chairman of IBM at the time
of this quote. As the head of a
technology firm, you would think that he would want to promote the use of
computers and therefore find a segment to where he could profit in conjunction
with the computer. Everything about this
quote seems off to me
4. "The horse is here to stay but the
automobile is only a novelty—a fad." – -The president of the Michigan
Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co.,
1903
·
This doesn’t make sense to me, simply because
the amount of time and labor is much less in taking care of a car then a
horse.
·
Also, the rate of transportation is much faster
with an automobile than a horse. A car
can carry more people as well as more cargo than the saddlebags on the side of
a steed
5. “ Television won't last because people
will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." – -Darryl
Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946
·
First off, I think that Mr. Zanuck greatly
underestimated the potential of the television.
From this quote, it seems as though he only addresses the entertainment
value of the television. He fails to
recognize the potential of the news media, sports industry, and even the
possibility of broadcasting movies on TV
·
I think this quote was in direct fear of the
television. Zanuck possibly feared that
if people had a television in their household, they would be discouraged in
going out to the cinema. That would, in
turn, hurt his business and his whole industry in general. Either way, this prediction was more than incorrect
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