Wednesday, March 4, 2015

My Top Five Bad Predictions

After ranking the top 5 worst predictions based from the lecture slides from class, I took to the internet to research 5 other awful predictions.  Below are the quotes I found to be just as incorrect as listed in my previous assignment, enjoy:

1.      “If anything remains more or less unchanged, it will be the role of women,” given by an American social scientist, David Riesman to Time Magazine in 1967.

·        Following the civil rights movement of the early 1960’s, it is naïve to say that women could not rally together for equality like the African Americans had previously done
·        This assumption could not have been any more poorly timed due to the fact that in 1967, the same year as the quote, the modern women’s movement began to traverse the country
·        The fact that Riesman was a social scientists suggests that he, over any other professional occupation, should be able to recognize social change in an population.  Fast forwarding to the present day, we can see that the role of women is nearly identical to the role of a man.

2.      "I see no good reasons why the views given in this volume should shock the religious sensibilities of anyone." -- Charles Darwin, The Origin Of Species, 1869

·        Knowing that the debate between creation and evolution still exists and continues to thrive, I think this may have been a way, though unsuccessful, for Darwin to avoid the dichotomy.
·        Looking at the core principles, that humans are a descendant from primates, directly contradicts the story told in the bible.  Claiming that his theories don’t contradict scripture is completely false

3.      “That virus is a pussycat.” -– Dr. Peter Duesberg, molecular-biology professor at U.C. Berkeley, on HIV, 1988

·        What is now one of the most widespread virus in the world, Dr. Duesberg greatly underestimated that effect that HIV could have on a person’s life
·        The “Human Immunodeficiency Virus”, as the name suggests, should have never been taken lightly.  The condition associated with HIV is anything but a ‘pussycat’
·        Over 35 million people now contract the virus and the number grows with every passing year

4.      “What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?” - The Quarterly Review, March edition, 1825.

·        Whoever authored this quote did not understand the steam engine.  The ability of turning steam into motor activity provided way more power than any fleet of horses could muster up
·        Also, by having preset tracks for a locomotive, you would not have to worry about the uncomfortable terrain you would be traversing in a stagecoach.  Not only would a  train be more time efficient in travel, it would also be a much smoother ride

5.      “Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value” - Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre, 1904. 

·        In regards to military value, a plane is essential in almost every facet of war.  Whether it be dropping bombs, transporting soldiers overseas, or shipping supplies to the front lines, planes helped to win several battles across history
·        Most of the battles of WWII involved battling via the assistance of planes.  The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought Americans into the war, and the atomic bombings of the US on Japan brought the war to an end.  Both of these attacks were made possible only by having access to the use of planes
·        Though this assumption preceded the plane industry, it is wrong to assume that the act of a flying machine has no potential in warfare.  Nearly everything can be used in a battle, and an air force should be the first defense created




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